Breaking News - DOW Futures down 450 points as New Strain of COV19 Hits Financial Markets

Yes.

The virus that was first detected in Wuhan, China, is not the same one you will find in most corners of the world.

The D614G mutation emerged in Europe in February and became the globally dominant form of the virus.

Another, called A222V, spread across Europe and was linked to people's summer holidays in Spain.

An initial analysis of the new variant has been published and identifies 17 potentially important alterations.

There have been changes to the spike protein - this is the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway to our body's cells.

One mutation called N501Y alters the most important part of the spike, known as the "receptor-binding domain".

This is where the spike makes first contact with the surface of our body's cells. Any changes that make it easier for the virus to get inside are likely to give it an edge.

"It looks and smells like an important adaptation," said Prof Loman.

The other mutation - a H69/V70 deletion, in which a small part of the spike is removed - has emerged several times before, including famously in infected mink.

Work by Prof Ravi Gupta at the University of Cambridge has suggested this mutation increases infectivity two-fold in lab experiments.

Studies by the same group suggest the deletion makes antibodies from the blood of survivors less effective at attacking the virus.

Prof Gupta told me: "It is rapidly increasing, that's what's worried government, we are worried, most scientists are worried."

The variant is unusually highly mutated.

The most likely explanation is the variant has emerged in a patient with a weakened immune system that was unable to beat the virus.

Instead their body became a breeding ground for the virus to mutate.

There is no evidence to suggest that it does, although this will need to be monitored.

However, just increasing transmission would be enough to cause problems for hospitals.

If the new variant means more people are infected more quickly, that would in turn lead to more people needing hospital treatment.

Almost certainly yes, or at least for now.

All three leading vaccines develop an immune response against the existing spike, which is why the question comes up.

Vaccines train the immune system to attack several different parts of the virus, so even though part of the spike has mutated, the vaccines should still work.

"But if we let it add more mutations, then you start worrying," said Prof Gupta.

"This virus is potentially on a pathway for vaccine escape, it has taken the first couple of steps towards that."

Vaccine escape happens when the virus changes so it dodges the full effect of the vaccine and continues to infect people.

This may be the most concerning element of what is happening with the virus.

This variant is just the latest to show the virus is continuing to adapt as it infects more and more of us.

A presentation by Prof David Robertson, from the University of Glasgow on Friday, concluded: "The virus will probably be able to generate vaccine escape mutants."

That would put us in a position similar to flu, where the vaccines need to be regularly updated. Fortunately the vaccines we have are very easy to tweak.

What the charts are saying?

ES Weekly

Sharp reversal off W XOP

ES Daily

There is a Change in Behavior on the Daily Chart (CIB)

ES240

Break of important market structure ( L/L + trendline )

ES60min

ES futures trading against intraday f3 node near the market open ( 10minutes )

Wallstreet is still digesting the potential impact this 'new cov19 strain' would have, especially pertaining to the worldwide government lock downs that are in play to varying degrees...

As we learn more about this new strain of the virus, and governments response to it, we will get a clearer picture on the potential impact on markets, and economies worldwide ( even though there remains a huge disconnect between wallstreet and mainstreet - due to the excess liquidty provided by the FED + government stimulus ).

How we trade from here, today on 21/12/2020 will likely tell us about the short-mid term direction for equity markets worldwide.