Hi everyone,

I wanted to share something important with you — especially given what’s been happening over the past week.

We’ve been seeing escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz…
blockades, reversals, shifting narratives — all happening in a very short period of time.

And yet — despite all of this —
equity markets are pushing higher, and risk assets appear to be pricing in a successful resolution.

👉 That’s where the disconnect is.

Because the market may very well be right…
but it may also be underestimating the downside risks — particularly if this situation does not resolve as quickly as expected.

I recently recorded a session with EBC Pulse360 where I break this down in a structured way:

• Why the Strait of Hormuz matters more than just oil
• The conflict in positioning going into negotiations
• How markets are pricing expectations vs actual risk
• And what investors and traders should be watching from here

👉 You can watch it here:

 Markets Are Pricing a Deal — But Underestimating the Risk (Strait of Hormuz Explained) | Market Focus with Team DiNapoli - April 2026

👉 Listen on Spotify 

The key idea I want you to take away is this:

👉 Markets don’t move based on events — they move based on expectations of how those events resolve

And right now, the market is leaning towards a resolution scenario.

But if that expectation shifts — even slightly —
👉 the reaction across markets can be much larger than what we’re seeing now.

As traders, this is where clarity matters.

Not reacting to headlines —
but understanding the structure behind how markets are positioning.

Our DiNapoli Levels are working great in these markets!

Take a look when you have time.

We’ll break this down further in upcoming sessions as things develop.

— Joseph AuXano
DiNapoli Trading Academy